About this Presentation
The presentation suggests ways to assess the uncertainty and translate it into damage assessment in a much more affordable way. It links the assessment to the decision. Key learning points include: 1. Describing uncertainty has to include at least two parameters; 2. Using intuition when time-series are not available or not practical; 3. The difference between personal decision making under uncertainty and making decisions within the organization activity; 4. The distinction between critical decisions that might be catastrophic and common and expected uncertainty that encompass the vast majority of the organizational decisions; 5. What can we learn from statistics/probability theory, and how to overcome their impractical models? Benefits to attendees include: 1. Being able to implement a better decision-making process; 2. Being able to document the inputs to uncertain decisions in order to better learn from the experience and refrain from blaming past decision makers; 3. Reduce the fear of uncertainty.
What Will You Learn
To help you get the most value from this session, we’ve highlighted a few key points. These takeaways capture the main ideas and practical insights from the presentation, making it easier for you to review, reflect, and apply what you’ve learned.
Most organizations do not manage uncertainty well, leading to poor decision making.
Current practices in managing uncertainty, such as using forecasts as single numbers, are flawed and lead to distortions.
The speaker proposes a new approach to managing uncertainty, which involves using a 'reasonable range' concept that relies on intuition and experience rather than strict data.
Instructor(s)
Eli Schragenheim
Eli Schragenheim is a well-known international management educator, author and consultant active in various fields of management. He worked with a huge variety of organizations all over the world, including public-sector organizations, industrial, high-tech and start-ups. Since he had joined Dr. Eliyahu M. Goldratt, the famous creator of the Theory of Constraints (TOC) in 1985, Eli Schragenheim had taught, spoke at conferences, and consulted all over the globe. Eli Schragenheim is the author of several books on various aspects of management. His last book, Throughput Economics – Making Good Management Decisions, together with Henry Camp and Rocco Surace, was published in July 2019. Eli Schragenheim first book Management Dilemmas (1998) showed a variety of problematic situations in management and the rigorous analysis leading to the right solution. Next he collaborated with William H. Dettmer in writing Manufacturing at Warp Speed. In this book the new concept of Simplified-DBR, now a key concept in production planning according to TOC, was introduced. He collaborated with Carol A. Ptak on ERP, Tools, Techniques, and Applications for Integrating the Supply Chain, and with Dr. Goldratt and Carol Ptak on Necessary but Not Sufficient. In 2009 his book Supply Chain Management at Warp Speed, with William H. Dettmer and Wayne Patterson was published. In March 2015, Eli has opened a blog, now containing more than 140 articles on various topics in TOC that everybody can access.