About this Presentation
Forecasts are as popular in traditional management as they are frowned upon in TOC. What is the truth behind them? Why is a tool so successful in science and engineering so vilified in management? Is there a valid use for Forecasts in TOC? Or a practical way to eliminate them altogether.
What Will You Learn
To help you get the most value from this session, we’ve highlighted a few key points. These takeaways capture the main ideas and practical insights from the presentation, making it easier for you to review, reflect, and apply what you’ve learned.
Forecasts are often misused or misunderstood when treated as precise predictions, while in reality they reflect assumptions about variability, demand patterns, and system constraints.
Traditional forecasting methods can mislead decision-making unless they explicitly consider system flow, buffer states, and real consumption rather than relying solely on historical averages.
Applying TOC logic shows how forecasts should be framed as planning hypotheses that guide buffer placement, priorities, and risk management rather than as fixed targets.
Real examples reveal how linking forecast use with TOC principles improves relevancy, reduces the illusion of control, and supports better operational decisions under uncertainty.
Instructor(s)
Eli Schragenheim
Eli Schragenheim is a well-known international management educator, author and consultant active in various fields of management. He worked with a huge variety of organizations all over the world, including public-sector organizations, industrial, high-tech and start-ups. Since he had joined Dr. Eliyahu M. Goldratt, the famous creator of the Theory of Constraints (TOC) in 1985, Eli Schragenheim had taught, spoke at conferences, and consulted all over the globe. Eli Schragenheim is the author of several books on various aspects of management. His last book, Throughput Economics – Making Good Management Decisions, together with Henry Camp and Rocco Surace, was published in July 2019. Eli Schragenheim first book Management Dilemmas (1998) showed a variety of problematic situations in management and the rigorous analysis leading to the right solution. Next he collaborated with William H. Dettmer in writing Manufacturing at Warp Speed. In this book the new concept of Simplified-DBR, now a key concept in production planning according to TOC, was introduced. He collaborated with Carol A. Ptak on ERP, Tools, Techniques, and Applications for Integrating the Supply Chain, and with Dr. Goldratt and Carol Ptak on Necessary but Not Sufficient. In 2009 his book Supply Chain Management at Warp Speed, with William H. Dettmer and Wayne Patterson was published. In March 2015, Eli has opened a blog, now containing more than 140 articles on various topics in TOC that everybody can access.
Humberto R. Baptista
Humberto R. Baptista is a strategic thinker, innovator, and Synergist, serving as CEO of Vectis Solutions. A recipient of the TOCICO Lifetime Achievement Award (2019), he has spent decades shaping how organizations think, decide, and perform. Humberto was a strategic advisor to Neogrid, a member of the TOCICO Board of Directors, and a senior figure in the Goldratt Group. He has led major Viable Vision transformations across sectors—from consumer goods and retail to manufacturing, services, and large-scale projects—delivering tangible, systemic breakthroughs. As a global educator, he has trained hundreds of TOC Viable Vision Application Experts and Project Leaders. Humberto is the creator of the Comprehensive Management methodology, designed to connect local actions with global consequences in real-world business systems. His current focus includes Comprehensive Management, TOC Principles, S&T-based implementations, advanced TOC Finance, and applying TOC to complex domains like retail, government, health, and education.